Trucking Industry Trends to Watch

The trucking sector plays an integral role in the overall economy by moving mass amounts of freight and supporting supply chains across industry lines. In recent years, this sector has continued to fuel economic growth. Nevertheless, there are still some potential risks that, left unmanaged, may threaten the sector’s stability moving forward. As such, trucking businesses should monitor several emerging developments that could impact the industry this year and adjust their risk management programs accordingly.

Nuclear Verdict and Litigation Issues

Social inflation refers to the rising cost of insurance claims due to increased litigation, broader definitions of liability and more friendly legal environments. It has affected many industries in recent years, with the trucking sector being one of the hardest hit. Specifically, this industry has become particularly susceptible to nuclear verdicts—jury awards exceeding $10 million—due to the serious nature of accidents involving large commercial vehicles. The American Transportation Research Institute reported that trucking verdicts have increased by more than 50% each year for the past decade, with nuclear verdicts in the sector doubling during this time frame. The ongoing surge in nuclear verdicts has caused many commercial auto insurance carriers to either decrease their risk appetites by hiking up premiums and restricting coverage offerings or, in some cases, exit the market altogether. Consequently, trucking companies affected by nuclear verdicts may face elevated rates and be less likely to have sufficient coverage for these events, potentially leading to financial devastation when they occur.

Cargo Theft Concerns

The past few years have seen a rise in cargo theft concerns across the trucking industry, exacerbating ongoing transportation bottlenecks, delivery delays and supply chain challenges. This is largely due to a surge in organized crime since the initial onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to recent research conducted by multinational data analytics company Verisk, the trucking sector recorded 776 cargo theft incidents in the third quarter of 2024 alone, totaling more than $39 million in valued losses. Among these incidents, the most targeted states were California, Texas and Illinois, with the most vulnerable locations being warehouses, distribution centers and truck stops. In any case, cargo theft can significantly strain trucking companies’ operations, contributing to widespread disruptions, financial losses and reputational damage.

Technological Innovations

As technology advances across industry lines, many trucking companies are embracing a wide range of innovations in their fleets, namely artificial intelligence (AI), autonomous vehicles (AVs) and electric vehicles (EVs). Despite these innovations’ benefits, they carry additional risks, primarily in terms of cybersecurity. For instance, cybercriminals could hack into trucking companies’ AI tools or interconnected AV/EV fleets to access sensitive data, compromise both stationary and active vehicles, make unauthorized changes to routes, derail deliveries and, in severe cases, cause accidents on the road. These incidents could have devastating impacts on trucking businesses, their operations and their drivers.

Driver Shortages

While labor shortages have become a top concern for many industries in recent years, the trucking sector has been particularly impacted by a lack of commercial drivers. In fact, the American Trucking Associations (ATA) projected a shortage of roughly 82,000 drivers at the end of 2024. What’s worse, the ATA anticipates that rising freight demand and an aging workforce could cause the driver shortage to skyrocket to 160,000 open positions by 2030. To minimize these shortages, a growing number of trucking businesses have offered higher salaries to attract and retain drivers. Yet, this has contributed to heightened overall operating costs. What’s worse, many trucking companies have still had to lower their driver applicant standards to fill open positions. These drivers often have fewer years of experience and shorter driving records. Such factors can make these new employees more likely to be involved in accidents on the road, contributing to an increase in commercial auto insurance losses and related claims.

Going Forward

Several trends are impacting the trucking sector this year, emphasizing the importance of staying informed and adaptive. By tracking these developments and mitigating any associated exposures, trucking businesses can effectively position themselves to maintain operational success.

Contact us to see how you could minimize risk: